Never Too Early Movie Predictions

Quite possibly the earliest Oscar predictions on the web. The format is intentionally simple. 1. Blog entries alert you when changes have been made. 2. The Tracker Pages in the upper right hand corner show the most recent predictions. 3. Open Threads encourage reader submissions and discussion. 4. Features include a list of predicted winners for all years, sites I follow, and ways to follow me here and on twitter, facebook and the LAMB. Oscar predictions are currently being made through 2017!

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

84th Oscar Documentary Short Updates (2011-2012 Awards Season) (7/13/11)

Here are today’s rankings for the 84th Oscar Documentary Short race, with previous ranking shown in parenthesis after each entry.

This list includes the shorts that are playing at the 14th Annual DocuWeeks (and are therefore Oscar eligible), as well as several others that have been well received at film festivals. I haven’t been able to watch any of these shorts yet, although I have seen some of the trailers online. So most of these predictions are made based upon buzz and descriptions of the films that I have read, and my own sense of what the AMPAS documentary branch might go for. Still, it feels like a pretty respectable list at this point in time.

A note that the massive changes in some of the rankings reflect the fact that when I made my last set of predictions (two and a half months ago), I had only done research on 35 films, and ranked them all accordingly. This time I have researched 85 films, as well as having two additional months of film festival results to look through.

1. Michael Kuehnert for Save The Farm (Predicted Winner) (previous rank 1)
2. Cari Ann Shim Sham for Sand (New)
3. Susan Koenen for I Am A Girl! (Ik Ben Een Meishe!) (New)
4. James Spione for Incident In New Baghdad (previous rank 3)
5. Ondi Timoner and Robert James for Library Of Dust (New)

Alternates:
6. Barbara Hammer for Maya Deren’s Sink (previous rank 7)
7. David Darg for Sun City Picture House (New)
8. Gail Dolgin and Robin Fryday for The Barber Of Birmingham: Foot Soldier Of The Civil Rights Movement (previous rank 19)
9. Womjung Bae for Vera Klement: Blunt Edge (previous rank 27)
10. Marta Minorowicz for Kawalek Lata (previous rank 4)
11. Jason Jakaitis for Mothersbane (previous rank 2)
12. Jose Miguel Ribeiro for A Journey To Cape Verde (Viagem A Cabo Verde) (New)
13. Elaine Kim for Slaying The Dragon Reloaded: Asian Women In Hollywood And Beyond (previous rank 6)
14. Katja Esson for Poetry Of Resistance (New)
15. Carol Salter for Unearthing The Pen (New)
16. Elina Talvensaari for How To Pick Berries (Miten Marjoja Poimitaan) (New)
17. Anna Frances Ewert for Into The Middle Of Nowhere (New)
18. Reza Haeri for All Restrictions End (New)
19. Phie Ambo for The Home Front (New)
20. John Cullen for 75 Watts (New)
21. Jonathan VanBallenberghe for Guru (previous rank 5)
22. Anthony Weeks for Imaginary Circumstances (previous rank 25)
23. Susan Danta and Wendy Chandler for Heirlooms (previous rank 9)
24. Arthur C. Smith III for What Do Polar Bears Dream When They’re Dying (previous rank 8)
25. Theo Rigby for Without Country (Sin Pais) (previous rank 21)
26. Horizoe Garcia Miranda and Jessica Rodriguez Sanchez for The World Of Raul (El Mundo De Raul) (New)
27. Joaquin Cortes Peteiro for Men Of San (Hombres De Arena) (New)
28. Karsten Krause for The Photographer’s Wife (Die Frau Des Photographers) (New)
29. Aideen O’Sullivan and Ross Whitaker for Bye Bye Now (previous rank 10)
30. Sean Mullens for Birthright (New)
31. Amy Grappell for Quadrangle (New)
32. Alina Rudnitskaya for Ya Zabudu Etot Den (New)
33. Sybil Wendler for Once Upon A Rooftop (previous rank 11)
34. Robert-Jan Lacombe for Goodbye Mandima (Kwa Heri Mandima) (New)
35. Steve Nguyen and Daisuke Suzuki for Hibakusha (New)
36. Jason van Genderen for The Unspoken (previous rank 12)
37. Ken Paul Rosenthal for Crooked Beauty (previous rank 13)
38. Ilya Tomashevich for Blue Sky, Dark Bread (New)
39. Dave Monahan for Things Grow (previous rank 14)
40. Jayan Cherian for Shape of the Shapeless (previous rank 15)
41. Nicky Tavares for Fwd: Update On My Life (previous rank 16)
42. Tim Hetherington for Diary (previous rank 30)
43. Kannan Arunasalam for Kaffir Culture (previous rank 17)
44. Jeremy Ticher for This Is Us: Video Stories From Senegalese Youth (previous rank 22)
45. Irene Taylor Brodsky for Saving Pelican 895 (previous rank 18)
46. Dave Porfiri and Linda Duvoisin for We Shall Not Be Moved (previous rank 20)
47. Mark Kendall for The Time Machine (previous rank 26)
48. Maria Pesli for Other Women’s Narratives (Afigiseis Allon Gynaikon) (previous rank 23)
49. Nicholas Corrao and David Haffer for Civil Indigent (previous rank 24)